Highlights:

• For the week ending December 14, US Crude inventories drew by 0.500 Mbbls, while API was reporting a build of 3.5 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 2.4 Mbbls.
• Gasoline inventory built by 1.8 Mbbls, while is in line with API’s figure and analyst expectations was showing a 1.2 Mbbls build.
• Distillate inventory drew down by 4.2 Mbbls, compared with API’s 3.4 Mbbls draw while analysts were expecting a build of 0.573 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up by 0.3% to 95.4%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.1 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 30 kbpd and Crude Exports is up by 51 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 464 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
• Real crude supply decreased by 1,084 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 525 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production decreased by 123 kbpd to 10.3 Mbpd and total distillate production decreased by 152 kbpd to 5.4 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand is higher by 848 kbpd. Gasoline demand increased by 207 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 417 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are slightly bullish on this week’s stats due to positive increase in product demand, a sizable draw in Distillate inventory and lower product supply.
• Product demand is up by 850 kbpd due to a large jump in gasoline and distillate demand. Lower product prices have helped lift demand as expected and distillate demand should continue to see a seasonal pick up. Distillate is marking five year high demand this past week.
• After last week’s surge to above +3.0 Mbpd Net Export balance, this week’s EIA stats have US Crude and Product Net Export Balance just shy of 1.0 Mbpd. The overall trajectory of the US Net Export Balance has steadily climbed from -2.0 to -2.5 Mbpd in Q3’18 to where the balance sits now at Q4’18. This represents a fundamental shift in the US’ role in global crude and supply balances, hence why current market price is reflecting such concern of oversupply and we expect this trend to continue because the US crude production is forecasted to steadily climb into 2019.
• PADD II crude imports were down quite heavily by 350 kbpd and this may be due to lingering pipeline issues, as the week prior there were 2 temporary Canadian pipelines outages including Keystone Legacy and Enbridge Mainline.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending December 7, US Crude inventories drew by 1.2 Mbbls, while API was reporting a large draw of 10.2 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 3.0 Mbbls.
• Gasoline inventory built by 2.1 Mbbls, while API reported a draw of 2.5 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 2.5 Mbbls build.
• Distillate inventory drew down by 1.5 Mbbls, compared with API’s 0.712 Mbbls build while analysts were expecting a build of 1.8 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is down by 0.4% to 95.1%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.2 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 174 kbpd and Crude Exports is lower by 929 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 1,559 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is lower by 100 kbpd.
• Real crude supply increased by 958 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 545 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production increased by 791 kbpd to 10.4 Mbpd and total distillate production decreased by 26 kbpd to 5.5 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand is higher by 951 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased by 311 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 468 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

Crude Inventory	Gasoline Inventory	Distillate Inventory	Product Demand	Product Supply	Crude Imports	Crude Exports	Ref Utilization	L48 Crude Production	Bullish/Bearish (+/-)
1	1	-1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1	1	-1

• We are slightly bearish on this weeks stats due a build in gasoline stocks, increased crude imports while crude exports are largely lower.
• PADD III inventories built by 3.8 Mbbls due to higher crude imports while refinery utilization declined 1.9%. Alberta’s recent announcement of a cutback of 325 kbpd will likely have an impact on PADD III import levels beginning in 2019.
• As previously mentioned, we did not expect refiners to scale back production as gasoline demand was likely to see a seasonal uptick leading into the holidays and that is occurred last week. Gasoline demand bounced off the lower end of the 5 year range to the 5 year average level. Finished gasoline production climbed higher by 791 kbpd, but was somewhat offset with higher demand and gasoline exports.
• Three VLCC departed Louisiana’s LOOP last week, with 2 VLCC bound for India (Khurais – Departed Dec 5 / Lulu – Departed Dec 7) and 1 heading to South Korea (Maharah – Departed Dec 2). Despite there being three VLCC departing, crude exports were significantly lower last week by 929 kbpd. A likely explanation for such a sharp drop is because the actual loadings of the VLCC took place in the prior weeks which inflated those week’s crude export numbers instead of this past week’s.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending November 30, US Crude inventories drew by 7.3 Mbbls, while API was reporting a build of 5.4 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 2.3 Mbbls.
• Gasoline inventory built by 1.7 Mbbls, while API reported a build of 3.6 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 1.3 Mbbls build.
• Distillate inventory built by 3.8 Mbbls, compared with API’s 4.3 Mbbls while analysts were expecting a build of 1.6 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is down by 0.1% to 95.5%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.4 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports decreased by 943 kbpd and Crude Exports is higher by 761 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 1,274 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
• Real crude supply decreased by 1,479 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 582 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production decreased by 502 kbpd to 9.6 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 100 kbpd to 5.5 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand is marginally higher by 45 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased by 311 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 468 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are bullish on this weeks stats due to a large draw in crude inventories, lower crude imports and a surge in crude exports. PADD III was the sole factor for the draw last week as it was down 9.1 Mbbls as crude imports into the region were off quite heavily. This is likely a combination of poor refining margins and the lowered incentive to ship crude to the US based on the arb.
• Crude exports climbed higher for the 2^nd consecutive week reaching a record level of 3.2 Mbpd and with crude imports sharply declining, EIA is reporting that the US is now a net exporter for the first time in 75 years.
• Gasoline demand fell sharply WoW by 311 kbpd and is now at the lower end of the 5 year range. Total finished gasoline production falling 502 kbpd last week, yet inventories built due to the sharp demand drop. This is worrisome, considering gasoline prices have been steadily declining and demand remains tepid. With the expectation of a possible seasonal demand uptick for the holidays, refiners are unlikely to scale back production too greatly, which leaves the balance very dependent on an improvement in demand. Otherwise, prices will continue to slide and push refiners into even worse margins.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending November 23, US Crude inventories built by 3.6 Mbbls, while API was reporting a build of 3.5 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 0.6 Mbbls.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 0.8 Mbbls, while API reported a draw of 2.6 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 0.8 Mbbls build.
• Distillate inventory built by 2.6 Mbbls, compared with API’s 1.2 Mbbls  while analysts were expecting a draw of 1.5 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up by 2.9% to 95.6%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.2 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 608 kbpd and Crude Exports is also higher by 473 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 110 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
• Real crude supply increased by 131 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production increased by 132 kbpd to 10.2 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 270 kbpd to 5.5 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand decreased by 0.8 Mbpd. Gasoline demand increased by 3 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 701 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are bearish on this weeks stats mainly due to rising crude inventory (largely in P2+3) amid rising refinery utilization rate, and a drag on product demand mostly on distillate which has fallen below five year low levels. The increase in import mainly from Kuwait, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia was not able to be offset by  the rise in export, contributing to an increase in real supply measure.
• Refinery run rates were higher across the board except for PADD 4. The current margins continued to be depressed and given the rise in distillate inventory and more of an average winter heating demand, refineries could face with decisions to cut back on crude runs again. Margins in the Midwest and Group 3 are trending lower suggesting the products would be pushed back to PADD 3 where margins have already been at near break even levels.
• The trajectory and rate of crude inventory build has been above the trend for the past month resulting in a shift in fundamental picture from bullish to bearish sharply. This is another reminder that over supplied market was only temporarily fixed by OPEC production cut for the past two years, a period allowing the US to grow the tight oil production at a rapid pace. Even if OPEC decides to cut on December 6, the US will continue to take advantage of the situation by eroding the balance and taking more market shares.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending November 16, US Crude inventories built by 4.9 Mbbls, while API was reporting a draw of 1.5 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a 2.9 Mbbls build.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 1.3 Mbbls, while API reported a build of 0.7 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 0.2 Mbbls draw.
• Distillate inventory is down slightly by 78 kbbls, compared with API’s 1.8 Mbbls draw while analysts were expecting a larger draw of 2.7 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up by 2.6% to 92.7%.
• Cushing inventory drew down by 116 kbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 103 kbpd and Crude Exports is lower by 81 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 45 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
• Real crude supply decreased by 259 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 154 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production decreased by 20 kbpd to 10.0 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 208 kbpd to 5.2 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand decreased by 1.1 Mbpd. Gasoline demand decreased 7 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 363 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are slightly bearish on this week’s stats due to lower product demand, higher crude imports with lower exports and another week of above expectation build in crude inventories. The build in PADD III was surprisingly the main contributor to the build last week and that is slightly concerning considering that refinery utilization has increased to 95.5%, which is much higher than this time of year last year (up nearly 5% YoY).
• The fact that Sunrise pipeline expansion has started its operation, the logical path is to send crude from Permian to Cushing then reallocate to USGC region for processing. This however should discourage import and promote export out of the USGC over time.
• The increase in crude imports into PADD III should not be perceived as bearish given the fact the import level was extremely low last week at 1.9 (YTD low), the rebound this past week simply brought the level back to its average levels.
• The sharp drop in crude prices this past month has Trump praising it as a “tax cut” for consumers, but this will ultimately hurt shale producers and while the impact may not be immediate it will eventually trigger some cutbacks and thus create headwinds for the US economy.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending November 9, US Crude inventories built largely by 10.3 Mbbls, while API was reporting a build of 8.8 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a much smaller 3.2 Mbbls build.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 1.4 Mbbls, which is in line with analysts’ expectations of a 1.5 Mbbls draw while API reported a meager build of 0.2 Mbbls.
• Distillate inventory fell by 3.6 Mbbls, compared with API’s 3.2 Mbbls draw, but analysts were expecting a smaller decline of 1.7 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up by 0.1% to 90.1%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.2 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports decreased by 89 kbpd and Crude Exports is lower by 355 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 872 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production increased by 100 kbpd.
• Real crude supply increased by 511 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 601 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production increased by 342 kbpd to 10.0 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 30 kbpd to 5.0 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand decreased by 2.0 Mbpd. Gasoline demand increased 93 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 315 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are neutral on this week’s stats even though there was a large build in crude inventories. Draws in products offset some of the build and the decline in refinery utilization in PADD III attributed to half of the crude build last week. The reduction in refinery activity in the Gulf Coast came from Motiva – Port Arthur where multiple units were shutdown (VPS-4 crude section, FCC and gas oil hydrotreater) around November 4^th. The cause of the shutdown was due to a power outage and Motiva was unable to return to its 603,00 bpd production until November 6^th, however reported down once again on Nov 10^th.
• Product demand across the board was higher WoW and is at the highest level for 2018. The majority of the demand came from Propane/Propylene where it jumped 640 kbpd on seasonal demand pick up, while gasoline and distillate were only up by 93 kbpd and 315 kbpd, respectively. Distillate demand is currently above the 5 year average, but distillate exports are lower, which is counterintuitive so this could suggest that the uptick in distillate demand is temporary due to a seasonal spike.
• With products draw this week, we shall see further support in products complex lifting overall margins. This should also translate to some support in crude demand from refinery.
• We want to note that total crude import has been hovering around 7.5 Mbpd (including Canada), export of crude + products at around 6.5 Mbpd while Import of products at around 1.5 Mbpd, the net balance is still showing a net importer for the US. However, if you exclude Canada’s crude import (3.5 Mbpd), US essentially is at an export mode. Combining with Canada, It can be perceived that North America is currently energy (crude/product) independent, eliminating the reliance on global market.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending November 2, US Crude inventories built by 5.8 Mbbls, while API was reporting a larger build of 7.8 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a smaller 2.4 Mbbls build.
• Gasoline inventory built by 1.9 Mbbls, whereas API reported a draw of 1.2 Mbbls.
• Distillate inventory fell by 3.5 Mbbls, which is in line with API’s 3.6 Mbbls draw, but analysts were expecting a smaller decline of 2.3 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up by 0.6% to 90.0%.
• Cushing inventory built by 2.4 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 196 kbpd and Crude Exports is lower by 80 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 622 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production climbed by 400 kbpd to a new record level of 11.1 Mbpd.
• Real crude supply increased by 546 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 467 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production decreased by 650 kbpd to 9.7 Mbpd and total distillate production decreased by 20 kbpd to 4.9 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand decreased by 611 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased 163 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 108 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are bearish on this week’s stats due to builds in crude and gasoline inventories, weaker product demand, higher crude imports and new record level L48 production.
• Gasoline demand has been slumping in the past 2 weeks and is now at a 5 year low for this time of year. The concerning part is that gasoline prices have also been declining, while refining margins remain poor in the face of crude prices plummeting. Normally if crude prices have fallen so drastically refining margins may still be supportive, but with product demand slumping into the end of the year at a time when refining utilizations are exceptionally low and crude feedstocks are getting cheaper, there may be more pain for product prices as refining sector continues to return from maintenance and until demand finally recovers to seasonal norms. Domestically, gasoline demand has weakening and gas prices have been declining to promote more consumption, but with winter around the corner it is hard to imagine gasoline demand improving much higher from current levels.
• Cushing has increased for the 7^th consecutive week and is now at similar levels that was seen in June of this year. This is in part due to another record level US production of 11.6 Mbpd after jumping the highest WoW gain of 400 kbpd (also an adjustment to reflect monthly actuals). It was previously expected that US production would be capped due to pipeline capacity constraints, but with improved pipeline efficiencies and increased reliance on alternative transportation, US production has been able to continue growing. At this rate of growth, it is highly likely 180 days from now, US alone is able to back fill the supply / export loss from Iran.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending October 26, US Crude inventories built by 3.2 Mbbls, while API was reporting a larger build of 5.7 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a 4.1 Mbbls build.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 3.2 Mbbls, which is in line with API’s 3.5 Mbbls draw.
• Distillate inventory fell by 4.1 Mbbls, larger than API’s draw of 3.1 Mbbls, while analysts were expecting a draw of 1.4 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up slightly by 0.2% to 89.4%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.9 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports decreased by 344 kbpd and Crude Exports is higher by 305 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 414 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is higher by 300 kbpd.
• Real crude supply decreased by 338 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 597 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production increased by 336 kbpd to 10.3 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 23 kbpd to 4.9 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand decreased by 494 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased 62 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 420 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are neutral to slightly bullish on this week’s stats due to larger draws in distillate inventory, lower crude imports, and higher crude exports. However, we want to raise the concern that lower crude import and higher crude export could also be perceived as bearish. The US market has been saturated with crude and need an outlet that is apparent. However, the world may not be able to absorb the additional crude from the U.S. especially when global margins are under tremendous pressure. US production is not subject to any agreement thereby challenging the OPEC’s effort in controlling the output which could lead to another production cut in 2019 and forward.
• PADD I and PADD III saw the lowest amount of crude imports last week at -194 kbpd and -220 kbpd, this was likely due to a less attractive WTI / Brent Arb.
• Refinery utilization was higher in both PADD II and PADD III, which signals that refining turnarounds are slowing down, but PADD II still has a long way to go since it is only at 75.4%. YoY PADD II is 11.3% lower and also exceptionally lower when compared to historical averages. If PADD II’s refinery utilization is expected to return to levels around the 5 year average in this climate of weakening refining margins, we could see an influx of refined products flooding a market that doesn’t want anymore. Major product productions has already been at the 5 year highs or slightly above for majority of the year, so we could potentially see it spike even higher for Q4 resulting in a worsening refining picture.
• While L48 production is up 300 kbpd WoW, for the month of October based on the past 4 reports, L48 production rates have actually been flat. This is in line with EIA’s own prediction from last month where they were forecasting a October slowdown.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending October 19, US Crude inventories built by 6.3 Mbbls, while API was reporting a much larger build of 9.9 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a 3.7 Mbbls build.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 4.8 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a draw of 2.8 Mbbls.
• Distillate inventory fell by 2.3 Mbbls similar to API’s draw of 2.4 Mbbls, while analysts were expecting a draw of 1.9 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is up slightly by 0.4% to 89.2%.
• Cushing inventory built by 1.4 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 64 kbpd and Crude Exports is higher by 398 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 941 kbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is unchanged WoW.
• Real crude supply decreased by 106 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 611 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production decreased by 402 kbpd to 10 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 145 kbpd to 4.9 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand increased by 1,531 kbpd. Gasoline demand increased 142 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 213 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are slightly bullish on this week’s stats due to very attractive product stats, higher product demand and higher crude exports.
• PADD II refinery utilization continues to be very low at 74.1%, despite gaining 4.1% WoW, with PADD II/Cushing building 3.0 Mbbls crude inventory.
• While total product demand was much higher WoW, the gains were primarily from Other Oils and Propylene, whereas Gasoline and Distillate demand were only up 142 kbpd and 213 kbpd, respectively.
• Cushing climbed for the 5^th consecutive week to 30.0 Mbbls as a result of continued turnarounds in PADD 2. As mentioned, PADD II’s refinery utilization is very low so it is likely that crude is being diverted to Cushing and resulting in further builds.
• Gasoline stock in PADD I has dropped in the past couple weeks, but YoY it is still significantly higher even though its refinery utilization rate is 10.4% lower YoY. The recent build could be attributed to the loss in in demand due to Hurricane. Meanwhile, PADD 3 had been consistently replacing global gasoline import into PADD 1 thanks to its proximity to cheaper crude sources near Permian basin.

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Highlights:

• For the week ending October 12, US Crude inventories built by 6.5 Mbbls, while analyst were expecting a smaller build of 2.2 Mbbls, but API was showing a 2.1 Mbbls draw.
• Gasoline inventory drew by 2.0 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a draw of 3.4 Mbbls.
• Distillate inventory drew by a small amount of 0.826 Mbbls, similar to API’s draw of 0.246 Mbbls, but analysts were expecting a larger drop of 1.3 Mbbls.
• Total Refinery Utilization is unchanged WoW at 88.8%
• Cushing inventory built by 1.8 Mbbls.
• Crude Imports increased by 217 kbpd, while exports are lower WoW by 0.8 Mbpd.
• Lower 48 crude production is lower by 300 kbpd.
• Real crude supply increased by 194 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 357 kbpd.
• Finished gasoline production increased by 719 kbpd to 10.4 Mbpd and total distillate production decreased by 213 kbpd to 4.8 Mbpd.
• Total Product demand increased by 137 kbpd. Gasoline demand increased 104 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 836 kbpd.

Our Interpretation:

Bullish = +1

Bearish = -1

Scale = -9 to +9

• We are bearish on this week’s stats due to another week of higher than expected crude inventory builds, smaller draws in both gasoline and distillate inventory, higher crude imports and lower crude exports. The 6.5 Mbbls build in crude inventories is the 4^th consecutive week where it has increased and last week the builds were across all regions, including Cushing, which has also built 4 consecutive weeks. Cushing inventories have now recovered quite well from the 5 year low range thanks to on-going PADD 2 refinery turnarounds.
• While product demand is higher WoW, the majority of the demand is coming from other oils and the lower distillate demand outweighs the small increase in gasoline demand.
• Total refinery utilization remains unchanged WoW, but PADD I has recovered from the previous week’s unusually sharp decline and PADD III increased 1.7%. PADD III saw the only build in distillate inventories last week and a likely reason could be product shipments to PADD I and II were somewhat lower, resulting in both respective regions seeing draws in distillate, and instead producers in PADD III continued to focus more on exports. Unfortunately, distillate exports the past week were not enough to offset the build coming from increased refining production.
• L48 production dropped 300 kbpd, which can be attributed to the temporary shut-in production due to Hurricane Michael this past week. This should not be perceived as bullish.
• Many analysts have stated that the harsh winter and the low distillate inventory globally will contribute to a rally in crude price. We are more neutral that the refineries have already taken steps to increase distillate production partly due to over-supplied gasoline market and partly due to low global inventory seen in Q2. This switch will likely continue into winter resulting in less of a concern of under-supplied market. However, the distillate – gasoline spread should continue to widen.

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