EIA Weekly Report week ending October 19th, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending October 19, US Crude inventories built by 6.3 Mbbls, while API was reporting a much larger build of 9.9 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a 3.7 Mbbls build.
- Gasoline inventory drew by 4.8 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a draw of 2.8 Mbbls.
- Distillate inventory fell by 2.3 Mbbls similar to API’s draw of 2.4 Mbbls, while analysts were expecting a draw of 1.9 Mbbls.
- Total Refinery Utilization is up slightly by 0.4% to 89.2%.
- Cushing inventory built by 1.4 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports increased by 64 kbpd and Crude Exports is higher by 398 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 941 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is unchanged WoW.
- Real crude supply decreased by 106 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 611 kbpd.
- Finished gasoline production decreased by 402 kbpd to 10 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 145 kbpd to 4.9 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand increased by 1,531 kbpd. Gasoline demand increased 142 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 213 kbpd.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production | Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
- We are slightly bullish on this week’s stats due to very attractive product stats, higher product demand and higher crude exports.
- PADD II refinery utilization continues to be very low at 74.1%, despite gaining 4.1% WoW, with PADD II/Cushing building 3.0 Mbbls crude inventory.
- While total product demand was much higher WoW, the gains were primarily from Other Oils and Propylene, whereas Gasoline and Distillate demand were only up 142 kbpd and 213 kbpd, respectively.
- Cushing climbed for the 5th consecutive week to 30.0 Mbbls as a result of continued turnarounds in PADD 2. As mentioned, PADD II’s refinery utilization is very low so it is likely that crude is being diverted to Cushing and resulting in further builds.
- Gasoline stock in PADD I has dropped in the past couple weeks, but YoY it is still significantly higher even though its refinery utilization rate is 10.4% lower YoY. The recent build could be attributed to the loss in in demand due to Hurricane. Meanwhile, PADD 3 had been consistently replacing global gasoline import into PADD 1 thanks to its proximity to cheaper crude sources near Permian basin.
