EIA Weekly Report week ending November 30, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending November 30, US Crude inventories drew by 7.3 Mbbls, while API was reporting a build of 5.4 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 2.3 Mbbls.
- Gasoline inventory built by 1.7 Mbbls, while API reported a build of 3.6 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 1.3 Mbbls build.
- Distillate inventory built by 3.8 Mbbls, compared with API’s 4.3 Mbbls while analysts were expecting a build of 1.6 Mbbls.
- Total Refinery Utilization is down by 0.1% to 95.5%.
- Cushing inventory built by 1.4 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports decreased by 943 kbpd and Crude Exports is higher by 761 kbpd. Total product exports is higher by 1,274 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
- Real crude supply decreased by 1,479 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 582 kbpd.
- Finished gasoline production decreased by 502 kbpd to 9.6 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 100 kbpd to 5.5 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is marginally higher by 45 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased by 311 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 468 kbpd.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production | Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
- We are bullish on this weeks stats due to a large draw in crude inventories, lower crude imports and a surge in crude exports. PADD III was the sole factor for the draw last week as it was down 9.1 Mbbls as crude imports into the region were off quite heavily. This is likely a combination of poor refining margins and the lowered incentive to ship crude to the US based on the arb.
- Crude exports climbed higher for the 2nd consecutive week reaching a record level of 3.2 Mbpd and with crude imports sharply declining, EIA is reporting that the US is now a net exporter for the first time in 75 years.
- Gasoline demand fell sharply WoW by 311 kbpd and is now at the lower end of the 5 year range. Total finished gasoline production falling 502 kbpd last week, yet inventories built due to the sharp demand drop. This is worrisome, considering gasoline prices have been steadily declining and demand remains tepid. With the expectation of a possible seasonal demand uptick for the holidays, refiners are unlikely to scale back production too greatly, which leaves the balance very dependent on an improvement in demand. Otherwise, prices will continue to slide and push refiners into even worse margins.
