EIA Weekly Report week ending September 28th, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending September 28, US Crude inventories built by 8.0 Mbbls, while API was forecasting a small build of 0.907 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a 2.0 Mbbls build.
- Gasoline inventory drew by a meager 0.459 Mbbls, while API was showing a larger build of 1.7 Mbbls.
- Distillate inventory drew by 1.8 Mbbls. API showed a smaller build of 1.2 Mbbls and analysts expectations were forecasting a 1.3 Mbbls build.
- Total Refinery Utilization is unchanged WoW, but is propped up by a large increase in PADD IV utilization percentage.
- Cushing inventory saw a meager build of 1.7 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports increased by 163 kbpd, while exports are lower WoW by 1.5 Mbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is unchanged.
- Real crude supply increased by 961 kbpd, with an adjustment factor of 388 kbpd.
- Finished gasoline production increased by 118 kbpd to 9.9 Mbpd and total distillate production increased by 34 kbpd.
- Total Product demand increased by 175 kbpd. Gasoline demand increased 115 kbpd, while Distillate demand decreased by 414 kbpd.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production | Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 |
-2 |
- We are slightly bearish on this week’s stats due a large and unexpected build in US crude inventories, higher crude imports and lower crude exports.
- PADD II’s and PADD III’s build in crude inventory are both quite large, with PADD III’s build of 6.6 Mbbls more of a concern. PADD III refinery utilization remains high in the region well above 5 year averages for this time of the year. Because refining margins in the USGC continue to show weakness and exports are lower WoW, this leaves a potential risk of continued builds in the region should refiners choose to reduce utilization rates due to poor margins.
- The lower distillate demand of 414 kbpd was offset by distillate exports of 416 kbpd, but there was still a distillate draw of 1.8 Mbbls, which may be attributed to winter preparation (ie. Wholesalers stockpiling).
