EIA Weekly Report week ending June 8, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending June 8th, US Crude inventories saw a draw of 4.1 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 2.7 Mbbls draw and a 0.833 Mbbls build from API.
- Gasoline inventory drew by 2.3 Mbbls, while API reported a 2.3 Mbbls build and analysts expected a 0.4 Mbbls build.
- Distillate inventory drew by 2.1 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a 2.1 Mbbls build while analyst expectations showed a 0.2 Mbbls build.
- Refinery Utilization increased by 0.3% to 95.7%.
- Cushing inventory saw a draw of 0.687 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports decreased by 247 kbpd and Exports are higher by 200 kbpd. Distillate exports is lower by 548 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production increased 100 kbpd to 10.4 Mbpd.
- Real crude supply is lower by 0.683 Mbpd with a adjustment factor of -56.
- Finished Gasoline production increased by 793 kbpd to 10.45 Mbpd and Distillate production decreased by 213 kbpd to 5.11 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is higher WoW by 3,345 kbpd. Gasoline demand is higher by 903 kbpd WoW and Distillate demand is higher by 902 kbpd WoW.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory |
Distillate Inventory |
Product Demand |
Product Supply |
Crude Imports |
Crude Exports |
Ref Utilization |
L48 Crude Production |
Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
6 |
- We are quite bullish on this week’s stats due to a larger than anticipated draw in crude inventories, draws in products, higher product demand, lower crude imports and higher crude export.
- Distillate exports were lower by 548 kbpd WoW, which could be attributed to lower demand from Mexico as they are currently on storm watch with Tropical Storm Bud.
- Kerosene stocks have increased in the past 3 weeks likely as a result of higher distillate production due to attractive product margins.
- PADD II saw a drop in utilization rate and crude stock, but gasoline stock built slightly, this could indicate that prices in the region are too expensive and thus dampening demand for gasoline. In addition, consumers are now seeing higher gasoline prices due to increasing crude prices. EIA is forecasting regular gasoline prices for the month of June to average $2.87, which compared to last year’s summer driving season is a 46 cent increase.
- PADD V utilization rate is the highest its ever been at 99.2%, which is 13.2% higher YoY. Demand in PADD 5 is now tracking its five year high levels while export to Canada and South America are elevated, supporting refining margins.
- US crude production has climbed higher yet again and this marks the 16th consecutive week it has increased.
