EIA Weekly Report week ending June 22, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending June 22nd, US Crude inventories saw a larger than expected draw of 9.9 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 2.6 Mbbls draw and a 9.2 Mbbls draw from API.
- Gasoline inventory built by 1.2 Mbbls, matching API’s reported build of 1.2 Mbbls while analysts expected a 1.3 Mbbls build.
- Distillate inventory was relatively unchanged increasing only 14 kbbls, compared with API reporting a 1.8 Mbbls build while analyst expectations showed a 0.8 Mbbls build.
- Refinery Utilization increased by 0.8% to 97.5%.
- Cushing inventory saw a draw of 2.7 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports increased by 114 kbpd and Exports are higher by 1.8 Mbpd. Crude exports are higher WoW by 626 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is higher by 100 kbpd WoW.
- Real crude supply is lower by 369 kbpd with a adjustment factor of 147.
- Finished Gasoline production increased by 43 kbpd to 10.14 Mbpd and Distillate production decreased by 72 kbpd to 5.39 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is higher WoW by 67 kbpd. Gasoline demand is higher by 405 kbpd WoW and Distillate demand is lower by 213 kbpd WoW.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production | Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
2 |
- We are bullish on this week’s stats due to a much larger than expected draw of 9.9 Mbbls in crude inventories, higher crude exports and continued high refinery utilization.
- Cushing inventory has fallen for the 6th consecutive week likely due to the previously wide arb between inland and gulf pricing (WTI – LLS). Furthermore, PADD III utilization continues to be strong at almost 4% higher YoY, which combined with wide inland and gulf arb spread this would incentivise shipping down to gulf. With the Canadian Syncrude production disruption that happened this week due to a power outage, we could expect this level of draws next week as well.
- Exports levels were higher WoW, with crude up 626 kbpd and distillate up 532 kbpd. The higher level can be attributed to a VLCC loading out of Texas City along with Aframax tankers, but due to inclement weather in the area delaying a second scheduled VLCC (FPMC C Melody, currently stationary off Galveston Island) we can expect a correction to export levels in the coming week(s).
