EIA Weekly Report week ending June 15, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending June 15th, US Crude inventories saw a larger than expected draw of 5.9 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 1.9 Mbbls draw and a 3.0 Mbbls draw from API.
- Gasoline inventory built by 3.3 Mbbls, while API reported a 2.1 Mbbls build and analysts expected a 0.2 Mbbls build.
- Distillate inventory unexpectedly built by 2.7 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a 0.757 Mbbls build while analyst expectations showed a 0.2 Mbbls draw.
- Refinery Utilization increased by 1.0% to 96.7%.
- Cushing inventory saw a draw of 1.3 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports increased by 144 kbpd and Exports are higher by 794 kbpd. Crude exports are higher WoW by 344 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is unchanged WoW.
- Real crude supply is lower by 77 kbpd with a adjustment factor of 66.
- Finished Gasoline production decreased by 352 kbpd to 10.1 Mbpd and Distillate production increased by 357 kbpd to 5.4 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is lower WoW by 1,573 kbpd. Gasoline demand is lower by 553 kbpd WoW and Distillate demand is lower by 579 kbpd WoW.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production | Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
0 |
- We are neutral on this week’s stats due to the larger than expected draw of 5.9 Mbbls in crude inventories being offset by equivalent amount of builds in products as a result of weaker products demand.
- Gasoline inventory built quite heavily by 3.4 Mbbls in PADD III, which could be an indication that demand from that region (ex. South America) is weaker. European distillate demand could be weakening as PADD I saw a moderate build in distillate stock.
- PADD II crude stocks drew significantly by 4.2 Mbbls WoW possibly due to crude being diverted to the gulf coast as price differentials were fairly wide. The last few weeks US crude by rail has seen an uptick in activity, and should continue to increase, as there are currently pipeline constraints within that region, which supports the idea that spot barrels could have been moved by rail down to the gulf.
