EIA Weekly Report week ending July 6, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending July 6, US Crude inventories saw a large draw of 12.6 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 4.5 Mbbls draw and a 4.2 Mbbls draw from API.
- Gasoline inventory drew by 0.695 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a draw of 0.9 Mbbls while analysts expected a 0.8 Mbbls draw.
- Distillate inventory built by 4.1 Mbbls, compared with a 1.3 Mbbls build from API while analyst expectations showed a 1.2 Mbbls build.
- Refinery Utilization decreased by 0.4% to 96.7%.
- Cushing inventory saw a draw of 2.1 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports decreased by 1.6 Mbpd and Exports are higher by 16 kbpd. Crude exports are lower WoW by 309 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is unchanged WoW.
- Real crude supply is lower by 2.0 Mbpd with an adjustment factor of -457.
- Finished Gasoline production increased by 388 kbpd to 10.7 Mbpd and Distillate production decreased by 21 kbpd to 5.4 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is lower WoW by 1.4 Mbpd. Gasoline demand is lower by 594 kbpd WoW and Distillate demand is lower by 321 kbpd WoW.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
| Crude Inventory | Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production |
Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
-1 |
- We are bearish on this week’s stats due to a substantial draw of 13 Mbbls in crude inventories (the most it has dropped since 2015/2016), lower product demand, build in distillate stock and lower crude exports.
- Crude imports fell by 1.6 Mbpd or 11.2 Mbbls last week, which a portion is certainly attributed to the loss from Syncrude and the latest news on when it’ll get back to full production is mid September, but we do expect imports to spike back shortly considering the WTI-Brent arb was pretty strong.
- PADD III saw a large decrease in crude stocks WoW by 7.2 Mbbls, which is slightly odd considering refinery utilization in the region was only down 0.6%. Considering the lower crude import number into the region and likely lower crude exports, one would expect the crude draw down to be much less than 7.2 Mbbls.
- PADD III also saw a large decrease in gasoline stocks, which it doesn’t look like it’s due to demand since overall gasoline demand is lower by 594 kbpd, but rather gasoline exports increasing quite sharply WoW.
