EIA Weekly Report week ending July 20, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending July 20th, US Crude inventories saw a larger than expected draw of 6.2 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 2.3 Mbbls draw and a 3.2 Mbbls draw from API.
- Gasoline inventory drew by 2.3 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a draw of 0.8 Mbbls while analysts expected gasoline to draw 0.7 Mbbls.
- Distillate inventory drew by 99 kbbls, compared with a 0.2 Mbbls build from API while analyst expectations showed a 0.7 Mbbls draw.
- Refinery Utilization decreased by 0.5% to 93.8%.
- Cushing inventory saw a draw of 1.1 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports decreased by 1.3 Mbpd and Exports are higher by 2.6 Mbpd. Crude exports are higher WoW by 1.2 Mbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is higher by 100 kbpd WoW.
- Real crude supply is lower by 1.6 Mbpd with an adjustment factor of 320.
- Finished Gasoline production decreased by 37 kbpd to 10.2 Mbpd and Distillate production decreased by 17 kbpd to 5.1 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is higher WoW by 398 kbpd. Gasoline demand is higher by 138 kbpd WoW and Distillate demand is higher by 26 kbpd WoW.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
| Crude Inventory | Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production |
Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
4 |
- We are bullish on this week’s stats due to a larger than expected build of 6.2 Mbbls in crude inventories, draws in products, higher exports, lower imports and higher product demand. Crude inventories have dropped to the lowest level since February 2015 and Cushing inventory continues to fall due to the Syncrude disruption and is now at its lowest point YTD. While there are reports of Syncrude coming back online earlier than expected, Syncrude has reportedly told buyers that it will cut August crude deliveries by 35%, so Cushing inventories should continue to dwindle down.
- PADD V saw the largest draw down in crude stocks compared to other regions last week, a possible explanation could be increased demand due to a decline in diesel prices by approximately 3cts. Another likely reason could be that PADD V is running a less diesel yield feedstock in their refineries, which seems more plausible considering its gasoline stocks built, distillate stocks drew, refining runs increased and crude imports into the region were lower.
- Export levels were significantly higher WoW, with crude exports higher by 1.2 Mbpd, which is attributable to a VLCC loading at Texas City. The VLCC vessel, Eagle Victoria, is the second VLCC to load in Texas City and was filled with 1.1 million barrels with the rest of its crude being transferred in deeper water via a smaller vessel. We can expect export levels to correct in the coming weeks unless there are continued VLCC loadings.
