EIA Weekly Report week ending December 07, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending December 7, US Crude inventories drew by 1.2 Mbbls, while API was reporting a large draw of 10.2 Mbbls and analysts were expecting a draw of 3.0 Mbbls.
- Gasoline inventory built by 2.1 Mbbls, while API reported a draw of 2.5 Mbbls and analyst expectations was showing a 2.5 Mbbls build.
- Distillate inventory drew down by 1.5 Mbbls, compared with API’s 0.712 Mbbls build while analysts were expecting a build of 1.8 Mbbls.
- Total Refinery Utilization is down by 0.4% to 95.1%.
- Cushing inventory built by 1.2 Mbbls.
- Crude Imports increased by 174 kbpd and Crude Exports is lower by 929 kbpd. Total product exports is lower by 1,559 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is lower by 100 kbpd.
- Real crude supply increased by 958 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 545 kbpd.
- Finished gasoline production increased by 791 kbpd to 10.4 Mbpd and total distillate production decreased by 26 kbpd to 5.5 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is higher by 951 kbpd. Gasoline demand decreased by 311 kbpd, while Distillate demand increased by 468 kbpd.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
|
Crude Inventory |
Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production |
Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
-1 |
- We are slightly bearish on this weeks stats due a build in gasoline stocks, increased crude imports while crude exports are largely lower.
- PADD III inventories built by 3.8 Mbbls due to higher crude imports while refinery utilization declined 1.9%. Alberta’s recent announcement of a cutback of 325 kbpd will likely have an impact on PADD III import levels beginning in 2019.
- As previously mentioned, we did not expect refiners to scale back production as gasoline demand was likely to see a seasonal uptick leading into the holidays and that is occurred last week. Gasoline demand bounced off the lower end of the 5 year range to the 5 year average level. Finished gasoline production climbed higher by 791 kbpd, but was somewhat offset with higher demand and gasoline exports.
- Three VLCC departed Louisiana’s LOOP last week, with 2 VLCC bound for India (Khurais – Departed Dec 5 / Lulu – Departed Dec 7) and 1 heading to South Korea (Maharah – Departed Dec 2). Despite there being three VLCC departing, crude exports were significantly lower last week by 929 kbpd. A likely explanation for such a sharp drop is because the actual loadings of the VLCC took place in the prior weeks which inflated those week’s crude export numbers instead of this past week’s.
