EIA Weekly Report week ending August 24, 2018
Highlights:
- For the week ending August 24, US Crude inventories saw a draw of 2.6 Mbbls, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 686 kbbls draw and a 38 kbbls build from API.
- Gasoline inventory drew by 1.6 Mbbls, compared with API reporting a build of 21 kbbls while analysts expected gasoline to build 370 kbbls.
- Distillate inventory drew by 0.837 Mbbls, compared with analyst expectations of 1.6 Mbbls build while API reported a 1.0 Mbbls build.
- Refinery Utilization decreased by 1.8% to 96.3%. (PADD 3: -3.6%)
- Cushing inventory saw a build of 58 bbls.
- Crude Imports decreased by 33 kbpd while exports are higher WoW by 624 kbpd.
- Lower 48 crude production is lower by 100 kbpd.
- Real crude supply is higher by 74 kbpd with an adjustment factor of 493.
- Finished Gasoline production increased by 86 kbpd to 10.2 Mbpd and Distillate production decreased by 247 kbpd to 5.1 Mbpd.
- Total Product demand is higher by 596 kbpd. Gasoline demand is higher by 446 kbpd and Distillate demand is higher by 372 kbpd.
Our Interpretation:
Bullish = +1
Bearish = -1
Scale = -9 to +9
| Crude Inventory | Gasoline Inventory | Distillate Inventory | Product Demand | Product Supply | Crude Imports | Crude Exports | Ref Utilization | L48 Crude Production |
Bullish/Bearish (+/-) |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
5 |
- We are bullish on this week’s stats due to draws in crude inventories, draws in products, higher product demand and higher crude exports
- The one caveat on this week’s stats is PADD III inventories and the suspect data behind it. To elaborate, PADD III crude inventories only built by a meager 12 kbbls, yet refining utilization dropped sharply by 3.6% and crude imports into the region were higher by 653 kbpd while export was higher by 624 kbpd. We suspect the flow from Cushing was lower leaving PADD 3 stocks at largely flat wow. While PADD III’s refining utilization dropped significantly WoW, it is somewhat expected due to upcoming turnaround maintenance, which should be starting next couple of weeks.
- Cushing inventory is sitting at an alarmingly low levels (operational inventory) which is unsustainable however, given the turnarounds are about to start in the next few weeks both in PADD 2 and 3, the inventory at Cushing is expected to build into Q4.
